possibly… This note is direct from the CSRD

June 14, 2024

Rainfall increases landslide risk in wildfire-affected areas

Due to the increased risk of landslides in the areas affected by the Bush Creek East Wildfire, the Shuswap Emergency Program wants to alert residents and visitors to the area of the possibility of severe rainstorms over the weekend. Intense rain in these affected areas can trigger debris flows and debris floods that could threaten public safety and property. 

The Environment Canada forecast is predicting widespread showers of between 5-10 mm, and the possibility of locally heavy downpours of up to 25 mm. 

A recent BGC Engineering report notes that landslide events are likely in areas identified as high or very high in the Bush Creek East Post-Wildfire Assessment Report. This equates to 11-17 mm of rainfall in an hour. (These are the RED ZONES primarily)

The Shuswap Emergency Program advises residents to monitor the weather forecasts, and to make an emergency plan. Consider leaving the area if you are concerned about the potential for heavy rain. If the situation is an emergency, call 911. 

Information on landslide preparedness is available from PreparedBC. 

Thunderstorm outlooks are available from Environment Canada.

The Environment Canada significant weather outlook is available here: 
 (Note: change dropdown menu to “Day 3” and “Day 4” to show this weekend’s outlook.)

To determine if you are in a geohazard risk area, you can use the CSRD mapping dashboard. 

[Jay]On the CSRD mapping dashboard, click the magnifying glass on the upper right and enter your address (you may need the community name too), the map will drill down to your location and you can see your rating. If you are in a RED ZONE there is a reasonable possibility for a landslide when rainfalls are greater than 10ml/hour. Landslides give almost NO WARNING. My thinking is that if:

• You are getting heavy rain, like when your windshield wipers have to go fast, or
• If your Alertable app says heavy rain expected, or
• You see on the CSRD social media channels or website a warning about heavy rain

and you’re in a RED ZONE. Take your emergency bag and head to somewhere outside of the red zone. Head to Scotch Creek and sit in a restaurant for an hour or two, or up to Magna Bay, or further. The other zones have probabilities too but less than red.

The meeting last night made it quite clear that we could be in for some landslide action. The next meeting is virtual on Monday, June 17, 6:30 – 8:30 PM
Online Registration link

[/Jay]